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May 2005
Volume 19,
Number 5

  Threat Analysis  

Can Islam Change?

by Frank Fox

"Every catastrophe in history is foreshadowed; there are always some signs in the sky warning people about the danger. Rarely does anyone believe them." — Calel Perechodnik, a Jewish policeman in a ghetto in Poland


Perechodnik was right, although it is doubtful that human society will in the future avoid calamities that it could prevent. Not every human "flight from reason" can be avoided — still, the record of civilizations teaches us that while insanity may succeed in the short run, it does not prevail in the long term.

Frank Fox is the author of "God's Eye: Aerial Photography and the Katyn Forest Massacre."

The events of Sept. 11 have been subject to much scrutiny, but those who plan calamity do not succeed for the simple reason that they do not take failure into account. The Japanese who attacked at Pearl Harbor did not consider the strength of the "sleeping giant." The Sept. 11 terrorists had already decided to give up their own lives, thus acknowledging a priori their failure. Al Qaeda could succeed in the short term, when it assumed the character of a corporation and used the technology of the West. But it could reward its followers only with death or imprisonment and was thus inferior to a criminal enterprise that masks its character with legitimate activities and so can at least promise wealth on earth to its members and entrance to universities, rather than paradise, to its young.

In the aftermath of the horrible events that befell America we need not only examine our weaknesses but also take pride in our strength. Much is being written about a clash of civilizations and particularly about impending conflict between Islam and the West. In his new book, "The Death of the West," Patrick Buchanan forecasts demographic changes that spell the end of Western Civilization and the invasion of Europe and Asia by Islamic and African forces that will destroy our way of life. This is not the first time that forecasts have been made about the "decline of the West," and it is fundamentally poor history. Civilizations do not die. The Roman Empire did not "fall" in A.D. 476; it became something else.

The Islamic world is trapped in the 21st century with a faith that seems to be in the era of flying carpets when what threatens is carpet bombing. Islam is a faith that has not found its Luther and Calvin. Those who have remained steadfast to its teachings and imagery are not nations, but families with flags, and thus have not yet achieved the status that the smallest states in Europe have enjoyed for centuries. When a medieval merchant in Italy started his ledger with "In the name of God and profit," he at least understood the role of religion in the new world of finance. The Islamic world understands business methods, but it does not yet understand the role that religion should have in daily life. Indeed, most Islamic countries have not even grasped that something as fundamental as certain kinds of clothing make progress possible. When Kemal Atatürk decreed that Turkish men stop wearing the fez and that women need not remain veiled, he understood that simple fact.

Bin Laden and his followers assumed that they could bring the West to its knees by attacking the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and the White House. They ignored the old truth that if you intend to kill the king, you had better succeed because otherwise the king's revenge will be most terrible.

The Islamic world is trapped in the 21st century with a faith that seems to be in the era of flying carpets when what threatens is carpet bombing.

The Islamic states whose history in the preceding century was marked by friendship for both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union have benefited from a status made up of unequal parts of Western dependence on oil and a romantic view of the desert. This has persisted and to it has now been added a virulent anti-Semitism. Our closest ally, Saudi Arabia, with its guiding doctrine of Wahhabism, continues to view the West with unremitting enmity. The Islamic cries of superiority will eventually resemble the histories of other bankrupt systems whose shrillness concealed their weakness. But one problem demands more attention. The brutal interludes of our times should end the endless debate of what makes a farsighted leader and lead us to examine very carefully the human propensity to become blind followers.

Americans are a resourceful and cheerful people, quite capable of taking care of themselves, and do not take kindly to those who try to stop them from enjoying life. Terrorism, the weapon of the weak, should alert us, not frighten us. We have to say this loud and clear to friends and foes alike: If one wishes to kill and maim innocents in the pursuit of a religious goal, he shall be speedily helped to martyrdom.

The fundamental inappropriateness of Islamic beliefs will eventually lead to cataclysmic changes in Muslim society. Younger Muslims, the jeunesse dorée from Mecca to Teheran, wait for an opportunity to depose their elders. The fact that some of them have chosen to give up their lives for reasons as varied as those of the Crusaders whom they vilify should not be taken as symptomatic of the generation as a whole. The Crusaders embarked on conquest for reasons that ranged from religious devotion to being released from payment of debts; and being simply unhappy at home or wishing to travel. Among the terrorists there must be many who find it difficult to contemplate a "nine to five" existence. The terrorist movement will eventually disintegrate like the Crusades did.

It is incredible that in the entire world of Islam there is no thundering voice that describes jihad as an abomination, as a cowardly attack on the innocent that no religion should sanction. It is telling that there has not been an important Islamic sage or leader who has stood against this self-defeating ideology. That Islam seems to have a great appeal among those in prison tells us a great deal about its future. As a faith it offers a refuge for a mind in turmoil, but unlike other faiths that preach love of the other, it turns the mind toward hatred of the other. It may change a belief, but the chemistry remains the same — toxic and volatile.

This new world of Islam bears only superficial resemblance to that civilization which held an honored place in the preservation and dispersion of knowledge when medieval society was still centered around the Mediterranean. But the absence of Islamic activity in the formation of nation-states ended such a chapter. After the naval Battle of Lepanto in 1571 there was no longer any prospect of Islamic competition with Christian civilization. The language and religion of Arabia survived, but the Muslim world has been backward ever since. The world moved west, away from the Mediterranean and toward the Atlantic. It led to a new chapter in world history in which Islam was only a bystander.

The fact that unremitting rivalry and warring among Islam's many tribes and states is met with calls for Islamic unification shows how far that world is from confronting its problems. In the end, like the person who chooses the right door because all the other doors have been closed off, the Islamic world must choose the Western path that has guided the growth and democratic character of Israel.

Of course, we are in danger individually and in groups — that is nothing new. As a civilization, the West, with America as its model, is just beginning to make its mark on the world. After all, Roman civilization lasted for more than a millennium, and did not even know enough about human reproduction to associate drinking from lead goblets with infertility. America, contrary to Buchanan, does not depend solely on reproduction. Its ideas are doing the propagating. It has a great future for itself and for the entire world.

© Copyright 2010, Liberty Foundation


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