Libya and 2012

"He is vulnerable in 2012, especially if the Republic Party nominates an anti-war, libertarian-leaning candidate."

Big "if" in there. The only one I can see as viable is Gary Johnson, and for reasons that are a mystery to me, he seems to get no ink.
I heard him speak about a year ago, and from a libertarian viewpoint, there was a lot to like and little to dislike.
So maybe that's the problem.....

The Republican Party is not going to nominate an "anti-war, libertarian-leaning candidate," but even if it did, Obama would still win.

The only electoral risk Obama faces is the economy. A double dip recession with rising unemployment in 2012 would make him highly vulnerable to a Romney candidacy. Otherwise, Obama's a shoo-in.

Barack Obama is an extremely clever politician. You can be sure that Libya will not be an issue in 2012, and if by chance Afghanistan comes up in a meaningful way, it will be plausibly portrayed as a failing of the Bush administration, which starved the war of resources at a critical time. As for Iraq, it may indeed descend into chaos at some point, but probably not in the next 18-24 months. In any case, all this administration has done on Iraq is carry out the agreement negotiated by its predecessor. The last thing the Republicans want is Iraq as an issue in 2012.

On the domestic front, Obama's position on global warming will not cost him a vote. Nor will his handling of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. He will fall, if he falls, according to the Misery Index (unemployment plus inflation). If the latter is no worse than today, he wins. If it's substantially worse, he may lose, though much depends upon who the Republican nominee is.

If you have to bet the farm on the 2012 election, bet on Obama. If you want to risk a mere twenty bucks, you should still bet on Obama. Democrats will not abandon him in droves. A few left-wing Democrats may stay home or vote Green, but the vast majority of lefties will turn out to re-elect the nation's first black president.

As a young man I hated being told by my elders that my ideas did not reflect the realities of the world. Now that I'm middle-aged, it's easier to see that youthful passion does not always make for good analysis. I fear that Mr. Hasan has given us more heat than light on the coming election.

This is wishful thinking (and I wish it would come true. The left has forgotten our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and, as a result, will not reject the President for staying.

Let me explain why they have forgotten: both wars are completely out of the news cycle, the number of deaths from each is considerably lower that it was in the first 3 years of the conflicts, and the amount of money spent is overshadowed by stimulus and bailouts (which the left accepts). In addition, his Republican opponent will be forced to offer a more hawkish foreign policy, drawing away left-leaning independents.

I'm afraid libertarians will have to elect a Republican candidate who offers large spending cuts and, unfortunately, promotes policies of war and statist social issues.

Where did you come up with the idea of the Republicans nominating an Anti-War/Libertarian candidate? From reading fantasy novels?
All of the prospective Republican candidates are neoconservative, warmonger, anti-abortion, big spending, lying losers with the possible exception of Ron Paul who is to old to be elected.