The Libertarian Party Vote

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Three days after the national election, Gary Johnson's total vote is 1,139,562, which is 0.9%, or less than the difference between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Google's Politics & Elections web page has Johnson's state percentages as follows:

3.5 NM
2.9 MT
2.5 AK
2.2 WY
2.0 ME

1.9 IN
1.8 KS
1.6 ND
1.6 SD
1.6 MO

1.5 AR
1.4 ID
1.4 NE
1.3 CO
1.3 AZ

1.2 OR
1.2 UT
1.2 VT
1.2 NH
1.2 MN

1.2 GA
1.1 NV
1.1 TX
1.1 IL
1.1 MD

1.0 CA
1.0 WA
1.0 MA
1.0 RI
1.0 NC

0.9 LA
0.9 PA
0.9 OH
0.9 HI
0.9 DE

0.9 WV
0.9 KY
0.8 IA
0.8 CT
0.8 VA

0.8 TN
0.8 SC
0.7 WI
0.7 NY
0.6 NJ

0.6 AL
0.5 MS
0.5 FL
0.0 OK (not on ballot)
0.0 MI (not on ballot)

The high percentage is in New Mexico, where Johnson was governor for two terms. The next four states are 2% to 2.9%. All are wide-open-spaces states: Montana, Alaska, Wyoming and Maine. Johnson's worst states were in the deep South — Alabama, Mississippi, Florida — and in the urban East: New York and New Jersey.

The correlation with "red" and "blue" states is fairly weak. Vermont is the "bluest" state in the union, and Utah is the "reddest." Johnson's share in each was 1.2%.

Gary Johnson did not affect the outcome of the election or the electoral vote. In none of the battleground states won by Obama — Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin or Florida — would the Johnson vote have flipped the state to Romney, if Romney had won all of it.

In the "battleground" states that decided the election — and in which Johnson could be a spoiler — his share was in the lower two-thirds of the distribution, ranging from 1.3% in Colorado to 0.5% in Florida. This cannot be proved, but probably a state’s being a "battleground" depressed the Johnson vote by a few tenths of a percentage point of the total vote.

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